USDT volume sets a new record for 8 weeks, ETH exchange inventory fell All-time low in latest 3 years — 2022.03.25
Original author of this article is Phyre Ni, a Chinese analyst who is keen to onchain data analysis, you can refer here for original text.
At 8am this morning(GMT+8), we can see is USDT funding volume has suddenly exploded, reach largest volume in the last eight weeks. USDC did not reach such a high level, but it is the second highest value in the week. The overall on-chain funding flow in Thursday reached around $18 billion, and the peak of the day has met the criteria to rush up to $45,000, but the weekly average is still a bit short.
But onchain funding flow on Thursday didn’t lift too much volume to CEX. USDT still coming out of its nearly eight-week high (not too much higher). In stead USDC’s transfers turned out to be the lowest of the week. Fortunately total transfer of USDT and USDC to CEX on Thursday exceeded the criteria of $1.5 billion, create potential chance for BTC to move up to $45,000. Now Friday’s transfer volume will be vital continue the uptrend.
Relatively overall funding condition on Thursday were good, both on-chain and CEX are not low, but they seem not to keep hitting new highs of BTC and ETH, instead choosing to add up the stock in CEX. In daily chart, USDT is back to Wednesday’s level, while more USDC is piling up. This indicates that there is still some spare capacity in total funds and it is not a breaking point at the moment.
In 10 minutes chart, both USDT and USDC have a large reduction in holdings during the main trading hours, just because more inflow volume will be consumed, you can also see currently USDT and USDC are controlling the pace of pulling out, although in continuing down, it is worthy to concerned about the balance in CEX, which should be prepared for the future explosion. At 16:00 PM, options of BTC and ETH will be delivered. BTC Max pain at the moment remains $42,000, short to long ratio is up to 0.6, shorts continuously to increase by 0.2. ETH max pain is $3,000, short to long ratio is 0.33, longs continuously increase.
—BTC market analyse —
The morning was fine for BTC, although it met some resistance on the way up to 45,000, but the overall sentiment and capital volume was good. As Thursday and Friday generally have abundant volume of the week, if Friday’s volume can continue to explode, there is still a chance for BTC to move up. But the risks are still, the first is that it’s hard to be sure if the money will continue to be injected after today’s options delivery, and the second is that weekend always lacks of liquidation.
No big flow in weekend actually may not be a bad thing, after tracking weekend data for a long time, as long as BTC on Friday is not a sharp decline in the market, Saturday’s sentiment can be preserved, thus achieving the uptrend. after all, the main selling pressure also not present. Saturday is instead an opportunity to move up. And the odds are that Sunday will be a downward move due to insufficient funds, so that’s both risk and reward, I guess.
In terms of BTC transfer, we can see that as the price rises, there is a “panic” sentiment, the main transfer has dropped from the 30-day average to the 15-day average, and there is a trend of gradually decreasing, it should be a large number of profit taking chips hope to leave the market before option delivery, through the SOPR data, unload of long-term holders of BTC holdings is gradually slow down, and their profits are already relatively low, while the profits of short-term chips are increasing.
Till 11:08am, the price distribution of BTC positions is almost same as it was in the early morning, of the extreme positions on both sides, only the faroff position continues to be noticed address changes, although not much, around a couple of thousand per day, while the high level lockup BTC continues to be unmoved. On the sell-off side, the profit taking chips at the bottom continue to ramp up, switching from position within 40,000 to above 40,000.
It has been a long time there has no large transfer of chips within 40,000. From here we can also see that after a long period of washout, the current holders within 40,000 are still relatively happy with the current situation and more pressure is shifting to profit-takers above 40,000. And as price rises, fewer and fewer losing chips above may shift, but you can also see that the pressure above $45,000 is going to be high.
Another interesting finding is that in previous GlassNode’s report said there was more buying during US and European time and more selling during Asian time, but as you can see after the continuous rise in BTC over the last few days, instead it’s the US time when BTC transfers to exchanges are peaking, and in Asian time there is relatively less.
— ETH market analyse —
The ETH situation was good in the morning, led by BTC, from stock on the exchange chart, on almost every day, a new lowest stock value come to, which also indicates that a lot of ETH is being withdrawn from the exchange. A look at the net transfer in Bitfinex, over the last 24 hours there has been a large number of withdrawals, total 140K ETH, not sure if this is user behaviour or just ‘sorting out the wallet’. But there was also a lot of selling pressure.
As ETH price growing, the same thing has happened with BTC chip transfer, the transfer chips are getting younger and younger, and are now showing signs of going back to 25 days. Data from SOPR shows that short term ETH especially those taking profits below are still the main of transfer, opposed to long term holdings. The market now generally has better expectations for ETH as POS ferments further.
— Position analyse —
It’s been a long time not to watch long term BTC holdings, not that I don’t think it’s important, but I’m pretty sure there is absolutely no interest for long term holders at the current price, even with the uncertainty caused by the Fed’s rate hike and tapering, and the geopolitical war, but nothing can stop the belief of long term BTC holders, we can find a minimum 8.51 million BTC that hasn’t moved in four years from Jan 18 to now.
很久没有看长期持有BTC的信息了，不是觉得不重要，而是非常确定目前的价格下对长期持有者完全没有兴趣，即便是有美联储的加息和缩表，以及地缘战争所带来的不确定性，但是都不能阻止BTC长期持有者的信念，从时间上我们可以发现最少有851万枚BTC从18年1月到现在四年都没有动过。
In another five-year-long parameter, it can also be observed that basically long-term holdings of BTC start to massively reduce position at around 70% BTC market possession, and the consequence of this reduction is that price of BTC reaches new heights, which has happened three times in the last five years alone. Also the current stock of long term holders has reached 70.68%, which is only 1% away from 2021 which is also the highest point in history, which sends us three messages:
Firstly, currently a large number of BTC that have been held for less than 155 days are not recorded in the data of long term holders, but a large number of chips in this section are currently in loss, so they are passively moving to long term holdings. Secondly, the long-term holdings of BTC, which are currently increasing daily, are all in a high hedge position for the last 155 days, and are also being passively transferred to long-term holdings. Thirdly, there are only 21 million BTC in total circulation.
This means that the more BTC held for a long time, the lower the circulation of BTC in the market, and as long as the scarcity of BTC is still, the price of BTC will be difficult to reduce significantly, but on the contrary, because of the reduction of circulation will push the price of BTC up, which tells us that even if the interest rate hike and tapering come very strongly, but in the premise of “four years cycle” is deeply rooted in people’s hearts, many holders are willing to wait for the remaining 700 days.
This is why many institutions will buy a lot of BTC, even if it does not show up in the next round, but after waiting for 1–2 cycles, who has the most BTC will have the highest BTC pricing power.
